Numerous legacy media have articles up predicting the Dobbs decision has so fired up voters, Democrats will keep control of Congress. I did a deep dive on the issue and found partisan bias at work. Roe will fire up some Democrats, but they are the same hard-core liberals who always turn out to vote, and skew the polls. Here are 4 reasons why Dobbs won’t matter.
Do the Math: Voters
There are 1,000,000 fewer registered Democrats than in 2021. A year ago in Florida, Democrats had 25,000 more registered voters than the GOP. Now, the GOP advantage is over 175,000. CBS news reports the shift has been greatest in the suburbs, especially in swing states (CO, GA, IA, NC, OH, PA).
Joe Biden is president because he won swing states like Pennsylvania, where his party has lost three registered voters in 2022 for every one they’ve gained. Those voters re-registered for a reason (fed up with Democrats) and won’t flip back in 4 months. Come November, firing up a smaller base won’t add up for Democrats.
Democrat policies have alienated once-loyal voting blocs. Axios reports the “largest” minority group (Latinos) has shifted to the GOP, closing the 47-point advantage Dems held in 2018. CNN reports the “fastest-growing” group (Asians) has shifted to the GOP, closing the 44-point advantage Democrats held in 2020. This was the 2021 revelation in Virginia; a majority of Asians and Latinos voted Republican.
Asians and Hispanics aren’t socially progressive and have real beefs with Democrats. Asians were victimized by quotas at elite schools and ending merit-based advancement. Hispanics were victimized by shut-down orders that hurt their small businesses, local public schools, and service-sector jobs
Do the Math: Issues
Legal abortion is down the list of “important issues” on the ballot. CNN has a story up about Roe’s effect on the mid-term elections: inconclusive. Even with Democrat voters, it lags gun policies, the economy, inflation, and political division. It’s a big issue for only 3% of independents and 2% of Republicans (the economy is the overwhelming top issue).
CNN found abortion was “the most important problem” to 3% of midwestern voters, and 4% of voters in the west and south. It is important only in the northeast, which has not been a “battleground” since 1988. Further, this blue area has lost voters and House seats to the southeast since 2018.
Virginia also provided an interesting “tell” on the electorate: millennials voted on parent issues like the safety of “their” community and the education of “their” kids. Above all, don’t sleep on the impact of early ultrasounds on so many “new” parents (OBGYNs prove the “existence of life” to every expectant couple; not so easy to un-see).
Abortion Might Be a Post-Peak Issue
The GOP believes mid-term success turns on candidate likability, gaffe-free debates, big ad spends, and ensuring election integrity. Victorious Glenn Youngkin checked all four boxes; notably, having GOP lawyers at every red-flag polling station and counting facility in Virginia (just saying).
The mid-terms will be a referendum on Biden and high prices. Don’t take my word for it. Listen to your co-workers, family, friends, and service providers (the guy fixing your water heater), who are paying too much for petrol and watching stock indices fall. Who wants more of that? Even legacy media (not just Fox News) are now piling on the hapless Biden.
If the GOP lost the abortion voting bloc, it’s because they profiled THAT voter (single, college-educated woman, living in a city) and learned WHAT she’s really against (male patriarchy). But, with women growing their share of architecture (59%), law (51.1%), medical (53.7%), and MBA (41%) degrees, and leading the party, Republicans believe THAT issue is post-peak, especially with 253 women in GOP House primaries!
Don’t Believe the Polls
You will read and hear legacy media belittle outside-the-box candidates, such as Georgian Herschel Walker, and wonderif he can win. Don’t. Even now, after the illegitimate kids story, he’s in a dead heat. Walker can, of course, lose, but his humble demeanor and pro-America message should win in a wave election. Is Biden in the White House? Then don’t bet against Herschel (Go Dawgs!).
Despite having a close relative working at the Republican National Committee, I remain disappointed at its poor performance in countering Democratic party propaganda. They are claiming the Roe decision is a major step towards the outright banning of abortion in the US. Of course, it is no such thing. Yes, the numbers give comfort - but I would also like to see this big lie exposed. Why lose any votes for the wrong reason.