Who’s Afraid Of Kamala Harris?

She's still the same old lib...

It would be challenging for any Democrat today to advance a clear agenda for the future. The party has held power for almost 12 of the last 16 years, and there aren’t many popular, liberal policies left in the cupboard. Voters remain dissatisfied with the status quo. A campaign to defend the system might not be the slam dunk Democrats once thought it was.

Nate Cohn (New York Times)

With 100 days until Election Day, Democrats and their media allies giddily predict Kamala Harris will carry Democrats over the finish line. After all, she just raised $129 million, got endorsed by party elders and Hollywood stars, and is of the age, gender and race to give Trump fits. Heck, Newt Gingrich said she’s “a strong candidate, don’t underestimate her.” Not buying it, because the DNC just pinned its hopes on the epitome of Liberal Elites, who lines up easily in Trump’s strategic crosshairs.

It’s not that she’s a DEI pick, falsely claimed a senile president 100% fit for office, or benefitted from an elitist abracadabra nomination (ignoring 14,000,000 primary votes). Nope, the problem with Harris is that she’s 100% the “preachy woman” Democrat James Carville blames for ruining his party. Because of her support for the Green New Deal, DEI policies, defunding police departments, and de-criminalizing undocumented border crossings, she’s (at best) only marginally more electable than Biden.

According to Split Ticket’s data, Harris does slightly better than Biden with black, women, and young voters, but slightly worse with white, male and senior voters. She does significantly better with the college educated, but significantly worse with the working class. Overall, Harris does slightly worse (-0.4 points) than Biden against Trump, but that hasn’t prevented the ongoing liberal euphoria or partisan media honeymoon (anything to preserve far-left laws and orders).

To wit, Democrat Party elders proclaim her a “fresh face” that excites voters, Big Media allies call her the “youthful candidate” Trump fears, relieved donors have released millions, and several polls report that she’s gaining on Trump. This momentum should continue through the convention into Labor Day weekend. That’s when the Trump campaign exploits her quirky personality, far-left policies, and large cracks in her coalition, until voters realize in November that “Harris For President” is just the same old bad policies in new packaging.

Don’t scoff at Wednesday’s Rasmussen poll that has Trump 50% to Harris 43% in a general election, because it means he doesn’t have to change tactics to beat her. It wasn’t Biden’s age but a proposal to make tip income tax-free that propelled Trump to a big lead in Nevada, where tips are 58% of the income for 1,000,000 service workers (source: KSNV News). Ballot harvesting was already going to help the GOP, and election-integrity measures were already going to hurt Dems (Trump lost in 2020 by only 44,000 votes in three swing states).

Ms. Harris has behavioral issues. She’s a bad boss; only four of her original forty-seven staff have stayed with her, a fact that leaked one day after she secured the nomination (source: ABC News). Awful, and former aides have blamed the “word salads” on Harris gabbing on Air Force Two – rather than preparing – and winging it from the podium. Her temper and lack of self-control – leaked by bitter employees – will be exploited by the sharp-elbowed Trump, sowing doubt in swing voters’ minds.

Ms. Harris has a “likability” problem. The Washington Examiner’s Byron York cites Kamala’s 2020 rise and fall with Democrats: “She seemed appealing when she started her campaign, and then they liked her less and less as they got to know her.” That old problem reappeared this week in a New York Times poll that found her 42% voter “favorability” behind Biden’s 51% and Trump’s 46%. Compare Harris’s likability to Clinton’s 52% in 1996 or Obama’s 56% in 2012 – – 42% doesn’t cut if for a Democrat!

Above all, Harris has “too liberal” baggage. In 2019, she supported a “ban on fracking” and said that “an undocumented immigrant is not a criminal.” In 2020, she supported the “defund the police” movement. In 2022, she supported new taxes and canceling student loans. In 2023, she supported “case by case” non-reversible gender reassignment surgeries on teens. This week, she blamed Israel for “a humanitarian crisis” in Gaza and boycotted Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to Congress.

Harris won’t moderate these positions before November; a widely circulated campaign memo outlined the “very issues that are most important to voters—restoring women’s reproductive rights and upholding the rule of law [on] January 6, Donald Trump’s criminal convictions, and the Supreme Court’s immunity decision” (source: Real Clear Politics). Running on “reproductive rights and the rule of law” in battleground states against “affordable gas, parents’ rights, and safe communities” sounds like a loser…

Because it is! This week’s RCP polling average – with Biden long gone – has Trump ahead of Harris in Arizona (+6.4), Georgia (+4.5), Michigan (+1.5), Pennsylvania (+3.6), and Wisconsin (+0.7), and the RCP betting average has Trump up 19 points over Harris a week after she replaced Biden (who only trailed Trump by 16 points the day before his debate fiasco). It’s absurd to credit Trump’s rise on Biden’s flaws alone when the greatest voter disapproval was always for Biden’s policies (source: RCP polling averages).

Bad policies that hurt working Americans: that’s why Democrat analyst Ruy Teixiera predicts Harris will hit a Red Wall (AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI) in November. Right now, she trails Trump by 15 points with working-class voters, 11 points worse than Biden. This is a big problem for Harris because the working class will be two-thirds of eligible voters in 2024. Even allowing for turnout patterns, they will be three-fifths of actual voters (source: American Progress).

Remember that “Red Wall” because that’s where the working-class share of projected 2024 voters is higher than the national average, and that’s what generic head-to-head polling will under-count for the next 100 days. Remember that working-class voters see the same Kamala you see (not impressed). Above all, remember Biden-Harris policies generated voter disapproval between 62% and 67% (source: Harvard/Harris poll). Bad policies in new packaging: voters won’t be duped.