Trump Approval? It's Complicated.
Byron York of the Washington Examiner posed a question in early June: what does it mean to approve of President Trump? He reports political strategists are really struggling with this question with only five months until November. The "experts" agree that Trump complicates prognostication. Even the venerable Larry Sabato has cautioned against conventional wisdom because Trump polls below his actual support levels. After 2016, new political algorithms are obviously required.
Trump is a moving behavioral target because he is such an iconoclast, rebelling against accepted presidential norms. For example, US presidents have not (and should not) engage in campaigns to delegitimize news organizations, but Trump says "fake CNN" almost daily. I resent Trump's referral to The New York Times as “failing” because the Old Gray Lady is part of my daily ritual. Of course, I observe anti-Trump bias - just as many other conservatives do - but I do not approve of Trump’s comments. If anything, I think mold-breaking presidents need more skeptical scrutiny by the press - not less.
My views on this matter have not invited my disapproval of a Trump presidency because I believe the US economy needs him. Trump is powerless to silence the press or stop the leaks and investigative reporting. Trump’s taunts and attacks have actually invited robust counterpoint from the mainstream media. This is advanced civilization at work. There is behavioral complexity in the Republican camp (Susan Collins) and political acrimony in the Democrat Camp (Maxine Waters) - and I love it! There should be push and pull between those in power and those who hold that power in check.
Conventional wisdom interprets Trump approval ratings (Real Clear Politics average of 44.6% on June 5th) and predicts Republicans will lose a modest 13 seats (Obama 2014) or a devastating 63 seats (Obama 2010). Still, Republican strategists are not in a state of panic. Byron York reports an anonymous Republican strategist, who avows: “You can love everything that is happening and not approve of [Trump].” This strategist believes with this president one must poll voters on the situation – not the personality.
When the Democrat wave election of 2006 occurred, only 30% of voters believed America was on the right track. When the Republican wave election of 2010 occurred, only 31% of voters believed America was on the right track. The aforementioned strategist states: “In our data, we have right track at 40%. If you look back, there’s never been a wave election with right track at 40.” This is logical: citizens should want to stay on the right track – even when they don’t approve of the man in the bully pulpit. As Crash Davis advised in the film Bull Durham: “Never f*ck with a winning streak.”
A recent Gallup Poll reports President Trump has the approval of 87% of registered Republicans, meaning he has wrested control of the GOP from Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush. Furthermore, the May Harvard Harris poll reported 68% of Americans believe the economy is strong (including 63% of political moderates). The same poll reports 54% of the nation approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while only 25% feel they are worse off since Trump was elected. In a key political measurement, 54% of Americans credit President Trump with creating more jobs. This is good news for Republicans and bad news for Democrats, who are campaigning with a “Better Deal with Better Jobs, Better Wages and a Better Future for all Americans.” Gee - if that slogan does anything, it will be to remind working-class Americans to never f*ck with a winning streak.
That’s the good news for Republicans. The bad news is they must nervously ride the coattails of a self-destructive party leader. Trump’s most ardent supporters explain away his inflammatory tweets as trial balloons that help him get policy right. However, Republican campaigns don't welcome non-stop questions about Trump's false claims and belligerent tweets. Even the strongest political support has a breaking point: Nixon won in a landslide and was slow clapped by Republicans out of the White House.
Trump is putting Republican candidates under an unnecessary stress test. For example, the Harvard Harris poll found many white women voted for Trump, but hesitate to openly express support because it makes them look unsympathetic to multiple women’s issues. The Billy Bush Video cannot be explained away because Trump is captured in full-on beast mode. Millions of American women rightfully made up their minds to disapprove of Trump. To the male reader: how would you feel if your father or son-in-law put those comments on videotape?
I am convinced it will be women's issues that give Trump his Watergate moment - not Russia or the wall. Russia and immigration are political matters of which the electorate has tired. Trump easily pushes back against political attacks. That's what politicians do. Unless you've been living in a cave on Iwo Jima for the last year, you have observed one male supremacist after another thrown from his seat of power. Gender equality has finally arrived and a majority of Americans (men and women) will not tolerate the likes of Al Franken, Roy Moore, Matt Lauer, or Bill Cosby. When Trump flames out, it will be because he met his Delilah. His on-the-record comments about women suggest it is just a matter of time:
In a 1991 Esquire article: “…it doesn’t matter what [they] write as long as you’ve got a young and beautiful piece of ass.”
In a 2015 tweet: “If Hillary Clinton can’t satisfy her husband, what makes her think she can satisfy America?”
In a 2015 Rolling Stone interview (about Carly Fiorina): “Look at that face. Would anyone vote for that?”
At the first TV debate against Ms. Clinton: “She doesn’t have the look. She doesn’t have the stamina.”
In a 2017 tweet (calling out Mika Brzezinski): “…how come low I.Q. Crazy Mika, along with Psycho Joe, came to Mar-a-Lago 3 nights in a row around New Year’s Eve, and insisted on joining me. She was bleeding badly from a face lift.”
These sexist comments would force any public-company CEO out of a job. President Trump is vulnerable just because of we the women. There is a macro-political trend afoot: Washington is finally changing into a 50-50 government with the women and for the women. Donald Trump is just one unforgivable tweet (about Roe v. Wade) or revelation (Stormy Daniels actually has proof) away from American women taking him to the toolshed. It is hard for an incumbent president to lose during a boom economy. However, a male supremacist - just like a white supremacist - is no longer deemed fit to serve as POTUS. And so - - Democrats hold out hope and Republicans hold onto their hats!