The Coming Green Wave in 2018
History suggests a coming blue wave in November because the electorate almost always down-sizes the in-party after a new president is installed in the White House. Furthermore, Democrats are energized and registering new voters in droves. This should set the stage for a blue tidal wave with Nancy Pelosi back in the saddle again, right? That is conventional wisdom, but these times are anything but conventional.
Trump is the ultimate love-hate president. While Democrats and their media cronies hate what he says, there are huge numbers of voters that love that he says it the way they would say it. Many polls failed in 2016 to capture the anger in forgotten America, and many are not capturing working class hope and optimism today. I am convinced Trump will always under-poll because people don’t want to be linked to his words and media-portrayed reputation (i.e. fascist and racist).
Give Us a Can-Do SOB
Many polls and books have reported the slow boil of the working and middle classes since NAFTA was launched and China entered the WTO. These voters resent NAFTA providing their employers with cheap Mexican labor and duty-free China providing big-box retailers (e.g. Wal-Mart and Home Depot) with cheap alternates to the goods they once made. These same voters, regardless of race, observed that neither George Bush nor Barack Obama helped their household economy; therefore, their bipartisan despair with Washington's elites soared.
What began in 1992 with a wake-up call from Ross Perot turned into a 2016 house call from Donald Trump. If Washington insiders viewed Perot and Trump as laughable neophytes, they did not understand the new silent majority. An overwhelming majority of Americans understand leadership as they experience it at work: a good plant manager solves problems every day, and a good CEO generates successful strategies. This is can-do leadership in a real world of results-driven solutions. In comparison, Washington leaders of every political stripe look like empty suits.
Show Us the Money
Liberal politicians and journalists have over-weighted non-economic issues that working-and-middle-class households see as peripheral. Mind you, this does not mean they oppose gay marriage or environmental protection. Hillary Clinton erred in calling them deplorable because they just wanted their household finances to be Washington’s priority right now. Because this erosion of household financial security began under Bill Clinton, worsened under George Bush, and became a crisis under Barack Obama, the silent majority was 100% open to an outsider.
The Washington establishment have only themselves to blame for neglecting this silent majority - and Trump could have lost to Jeb Bush or Hillary Clinton. It was inexcusable that Trump alone talked about re-negotiating bad trade deals and returning manufacturing jobs to the USA. This is true, and it was insanity for Obama to mock Trump saving factory jobs with his “magic wand” comments and Pelosi to mock $1,000 bonuses as “crumbs.” That was political suicide: the low-expectation party rarely wins, and the DNC has yet to articulate a compelling economic message.
A Green Wave Trumps a Red or Blue Wave
I have spoken to hundreds of working Hispanics and Blacks, who suspect Trump of racial bias but trust his ability to improve their household finances. 2018 polling numbers reflect ever-increasing Trump approval from African-Americans, Hispanics and young people, who are really living in communities with better employment opportunities (source: Real Clear Politics). This represents an existential threat to Democrats, who should look to Apple for a history lesson. Steve Jobs’ employees loved his vision and financial results – even as they knew he was obnoxious and a horrible father.
Furthermore, Trump still resonates hugely with blue-collar voters in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump’s 2016 blue-collar appeal was broad: he “got” their anxiety over the economy, national safety and traditional values. However, his macro-message was simple: I am going to fix this economy and restore the American dream for your family. New polling numbers prove his blue-collar approval rates are growing because of the Trump Economy.
85 percent of blue-collar Americans say their lives are now “heading in the right direction” and 51 percent say “the country is now heading in the right direction” (source: Harvard-Harris). The poll also reports 55 percent say they are “better off now than they were five years ago” and 88 percent say their children “will have a better future than I will.” 80 percent are optimistic about the future and believe “the harder you work the more successful you will be.” Furthermore, 70 percent say “the American dream is alive for people like me.” This is great news for Republican candidates.
The DNC should be alarmed by one particular number: 39 percent of blue-collar registered Democrats believe “Republicans do a better job of handling the economy than Democrats.” Working and middle class Democrats have previously voted their pocketbooks for conservative Ronald Reagan and centrist Bill Clinton. With this in mind, don't sleep on any Republican candidate with a strong economic message.
An Election Night for the Ages
In the spirit of full disclosure, I am flummoxed by Donald Trump and his leadership. I cheered in 2016 when Jeb Bush hit back: “You can’t insult your way to the White House, Donald.” Only now I see Trump has insulted his way into the presidency, NATO countries into paying more, and Mexico into re-negotiating NAFTA. As a God-fearing woman on my flight this week told me, “the swamp is so entrenched and larcenous, it takes one of their own to defeat them.” I believe this is what many working and middle class voters see in Trump and like-minded Republican candidates.
If you are a Republican, don’t pop your midterm champagne corks just yet. This president will always live under a dark cloud. The media and deep state will not only go after him: they will investigate and castigate his family and friends, meaning a steady diet of Trump Dirt as long as he is president. Trump also verbally self-destructs at least once a month and has the same girl issues that troubled Bill Clinton. Above all, I would not be surprised if exit polls during a blue wave night reflect an electorate that was emotionally exhausted by Trump’s leadership style. So - - - ignore the polls and the political pundits before election night, when everyday Americans tell us what they really think about how Washington has behaved the last two years. And don't be surprised by a big green wave.