Predicting Trump’s Popularity Arc
Perhaps you are aware the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday showed 50% of likely US voters approve of President Trump’s performance (49% disapprove). Most other polls still have Trump’s approval between 35% and 45%. I lead with Rasmussen because at this same point in the Obama presidency, the poll showed his approval at only 45% of likely voters. This positive comparison (for Trump) is an important tell. All things considered, Donald Trump continues to defy the laws of political gravity. And as far as his political future is concerned, his popularity arc will be influenced by three core Trump fundamentals.
His opponents don’t how to meaningfully define him. Based on the anti-Trump narrative, many political pundits predict gloom and doom for Republicans in 2018 and Trump in 2020. Don’t believe a word they write or say. They have no clue because there is no precedence for such an outlier president as Trump. Translation: political pundits – especially left-leaning talking heads - have no context when it comes to predict what Trump may do or say.
It is human nature to over-value predictability: everyone wants a guarantee the plane will safely land. Therefore, the Trump commentariat has fallen into a thinking trap: Trump is un-presidential because he is unpredictable. After the assassination attempt on Congressman Steve Scalise, Trump tweeted support for the 2nd amendment. After the Parkland school shooting, he tweeted gun buyers must be 21 years old. Political pundits might criticize Trump for flip-flopping, but most likely voters see Trump as being only human – just like them! This quality will eventually accrue to President Trump.
Political pundits rationalize everything, but likely voters make decisions based on how they feel. The press might pound Trump for flip-flopping, but voters are more likely to appreciate Trump’s non-robotic responses. Average Americans have observed spouses and bosses reacting to new information, which is not a character flaw. This quality makes Trump a difficult political opponent. My opponent, Donald Trump, was bought by the NRA! What? The NRA just tweeted he wants to deprive teenagers of the right to keep and bear arms? My opponent, Donald Trump is a flip-flopper!
His opponents don’t value his business experience and expertise. There is no denying Trump entered politics after a super-successful business career. Washington had no precedent to prepare it for a cocksure marketing and operating billionaire. All too predictably, Democrats and their media cronies focus on the bad habits of a family-business entrepreneur (such as his off-the-cuff comments). It is a thinking trap to focus on Trump’s un-presidential behavior based on such a small sample size (6 presidents since I left university 40 years ago). Still, the liberal media portrays Trump as a terrible comforter in chief because he is not Bill Clinton. Meanwhile Trump is managing like a great CEO.
His first decision set him up to be a successful president: he did not make too many campaign promises. He stuck to three key issues: gainful American jobs (tax cuts), immigration reform (the wall), and national safety (support cops and soldiers). As president, he has stuck to these three issues. When he opted out of the Paris Accord, he framed the accord as a job-killing agreement. When he reduced regulations, he described them as job-killing regulations. Even his tax-cut legislation was called the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Folks, that is called great branding: consistent and constant.
The typical politician makes too many campaign promises, under-delivers, and spins (blames) his or her way into the good graces of the press and party faithful. The electorate wants results and promise keepers. Trump passed tax reform and will secure future votes because of it. He delegated the war against ISIS to the generals and has boosted military spending. He has kept THE WALL on the front burner and won’t stop pushing for it. Be honest: how long did it take Obama to back off the “close Guantanamo” campaign promise? I suspect Trump benefits from his under-promise and over-deliver business approach.
American voters value results more than rhetoric. Trump is not a great speaker. In fact, his tweets invite unnecessary (and deserved) criticism. Trump’s popularity arc will be driven primarily by the economic results of his business de-regulation and tax cuts. This is what swings the silent majority: 60% of the population, which is fairly moderate. If Republicans can honestly point to record-setting results in job and wage growth, as well as robust corporate re-investment, then they will hold the House and Senate. If the campaign in Afghanistan is as successful as the post-Obama campaign in ISIL, then they will add to their majorities. If a bipartisan immigration act reforms the current mess – and includes a wall – Republicans will win a filibuster-proof Senate majority.
The current strategy of Democrats, who persist with make-believe Trump Watergates, resonates only with 20% of the voters that still believe Hillary was the right choice. Trust me, yammering about Trump University and alleged sex with a Playboy centerfold is not a winning campaign strategy. Democrats have over-saturated likely voters with so many cries of Wolf! it is considered fake news and irrelevant by most Americans. Trump won because Americans were angry (which is why Bernie Sanders over-polled as a socialist). Americans were angry because Washington under-performed for 24 years. Anger demands a new direction and better outcomes. This is why Trump’s popularity arc might surprise the pundits one more time.