Populism for Dummies

The revolt of the working class...

Democrats do not support the wall. We consider the wall immoral.

Nancy Pelosi (Democrat)

It’s idiotic views like the quote from Nancy Pelosi (above) that spawned populism in America. Decent folks from Milwaukee (WI) to Mesa (AZ) know their country is a homeland defined by controlled borders, and a nation of laws followed by all. Open-border Democrats like Ms. Pelosi are precisely why a brute like Donald Trump won 74 million votes in 2020.

Liberal elites like Pelosi and her pal Barack Obama use the word “populist” interchangeably with “nativist” or “authoritarian” to demonize US citizens who hold popular beliefs; like America’s history is one of social and economic progress, or individual and family needs supersede those of the central state. That shifty Obama even told the press Trump was not a “true populist” in 2016.

Obama claimed that Bernie Sanders was the “real populist” because he’d spent five decades fighting for working people (actually 50 years fighting for socialism), and swore that Trump did not care about working people. Trump went on to win 62% of the white working class (source: AP/NORC exit poll). Now, eight years later, Biden “is faltering among working-class voters of color” (source: Politico).

Obama, the godfather of identity politics, ignores the situational politics behind populist movements. To wit, a majority of Brits, worried about their nation’s sovereignty, ignored governing elites and voted “yes” to Brexit. US parents, angered and ignored by “woke” school boards, formed Moms For Liberty to turn out voters for governors Youngkin (R-VA) and DeSantis (R-FL). Dutch and French farmers, suffering from ESG-inflated energy costs, clogged roads with their tractors in protest. That’s real democracy in action!

Europe’s shift to the populist right is based on what voters saw. Shantytowns and ethnic clashes in Paris, which they blame on irresponsible immigration policies. A 15-fold surge in gas and electricity prices after Russia invaded Ukraine, because of the EU’s rush to Zero-Carbon. No question, these intolerable acts forced middling folks to listen to Europe’s far-right politicians, such as Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and the Netherlands Geert Wilders.

A common populist thread links Fratelli d’Italia, Holland’s Party for Freedom, France’s National Rally, and the Alternative for Germany: native-born citizens opposed to (1) illegal immigrants who reject Europe’s cultural traditions, (2) radical transgender policies, and (3) Net Zero mandates. A June wake-up call awaits President Ursula Von den Leyen (EU), when the populist right Identity & Democracy grouping gains up to 40 seats in the European Parliament.

Th point here is that Von den Leyen’s fate awaits Joe Biden come November. Today’s RCP betting average has him behind Trump by 8.2 points (39.8 to 48.0). Two-thirds of likely voters think he’s “taking the US down the wrong track” (source: New York Times). Duh, high gas prices reduced support for his future bans on gas-powered vehicles to only 23%, and increased support for more domestic oil and gas production to 87% (source: Ipsos). That’s bad for Biden, but nothing’s creating new populists like his radical shift on immigration policies.

Radical, because Bill Clinton told reporters in 1995 that illegal immigrants take “jobs otherwise held by citizens” and use “public services that burden our taxpayers,” and Barack Obama told reporters in 2005 the government “cannot allow people to pour into the United States undetected and undocumented.” So, what does Biden do? Reverse every Trump policy and watch illegal border crossings hit all-time highs. Now, voters tell Gallup that immigration is the “most important problem facing the US” – and why is that?

Could be Nancy Pelosi’s assertion in 2022 that Americans had “to recognize the importance of newcomers to our nation. We need them to pick the crops.” Clinton’s shaking his head on that one, just like 63% of all voters who oppose Biden’s handling of immigration (source: RCP polling average). Bad, but the issue is killing Biden with working class voters – of every race – who are now dashing to MAGA populism. Democrat analyst Ruy Teixiera predicts “working-class voters will determine the outcome of the 2024 election.”

His math is convincing: working-class voters are 66% of the vote and 60% of the turnout – shares that go up in all six swing states (AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI). Across that six-state battleground, Biden trails Trump by 16 points amongst working-class voters – 12 points worse than his national working-class deficit (source: New York Times). He’s behind 9 points in Arizona, 21 points in Georgia, 24 points in Michigan, 21 points in Nevada, 19 points in Pennsylvania, and 6 points in Wisconsin.

The Biden campaign’s response to rising populism is to call 2024 the “abortion rights election” here and the “democracy election” there. As if working class Americans still care about January 6 (they don’t: Harvard/Harris found it’s an “issue” for only 7%). They care about the cost of groceries, illegal immigrants taking local jobs, and being shamed for their traditional values. And that’s on Joe Soon To Be Former President Biden.