The first GOP presidential debates offered great first impressions. DeSantis stayed on message, Ramaswamy agitated career politicians, Haley was reasoned, and Christie was patriotic. It was good that Trump was absent, albeit with his own informercial on X (formerly Twitter). Afterward, the politicos on Fox all but called the primaries for Trump. Not so fast, because today’s national polls are not predictive.
After being wrong in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022, polling now measures two things: (a) liberal support for “un-electable” Trump, and (b) the level of outrage Biden incites in conservatives.
Democrats voted for the “most un-electable” candidates in 2022’s GOP primaries, so why not now? There are polls that make one go hmmm.
Take swing-state Virginia, where Biden trails Youngkin 37-44, holds a 41-41 tie with DeSantis, and leads Trump 43-40. In fact, August head-to-head polls show Biden 41%, Trump 41% and undecided 18%, compared to Biden 41%, DeSantis 37%, and undecided 22%. Isn’t that what matters for the GOP; maybe someone not under indictment can compete with Biden?
Because Trump’s unfavorable rating (56.2%) is higher than Biden’s (53.9%), and Biden’s favorable rating (41.3%) is higher than Trump’s (39.7%). And Trump holds only 42% of Iowa and Pennsylvania GOP voters, and 48% of South Carolina and Utah Republicans. Of course, Trump is leading, but c’mon, man!
There’s a lot of Republican reflection between now and next August. To this end, Pence’s comments about his oath to uphold the constitution, and Christie’s comments about living up to the dignity of America’s highest office, gave a cognitive out for those of us who voted for Trump twice.
I think Republican heart strings were pulled when DeSantis, Haley, and Scott claimed Mike Pence did the right thing on January 6. I think wise Republicans appreciate how smart Nikki Haley’s abortion position is, and how right DeSantis was to refuse the show of hands on Global warming (“we’re not school kids”).
If Ramaswamy can get under the skin of middle-aged Republicans, imagine the circles he’d run around Joe “Uncle Weezer” Biden. If you’re a boomer (like me), get used to the youthful audacity of Vivek - - because SMART is back in style, and he loves this country and its European constructs. He’s no dummy, and it’s time to attract the young and college-educated.
About those national polls and Trump’s insurmountable lead. Did you know each Trump bounce was preceded by indictment? A psychologist tweeted something that caught my eye: it’s the one thing a conservative can do to defy Biden tyranny. But - does that guarantee support in a caucus or primary voting booth? Maybe not.
It’s a long primary season, and there were few absolute truths last night. The guess here is that Burgum and Hutchinson won’t make it to Iowa, and nobody else makes the stage.
And Trump? He’ll have to debate sooner or later. And when he does, Chris Christie proved last night that boos and fat jokes won’t cause the prosecutor to shut up. He says Trump’s afraid of him. It could be true.
One final thought: the depth on the GOP bench is impressive. I look forward to the next debate, after everyone has self-scouted and refined their messages, but before then, look at who dropped (Trump) and soared (Haley) in the IAP quick-response poll:
Our favourite pundit is quite right. Trump is by no means "in" because the Republican party is out to get him and will stop at nothing to do so. Trump is an anti-establishment and anti-war candidate, and the Republican party is more establishment than the Establishment. It is also run by neo-cons who want the Ukraine war to continue as long as it triggers further contracts for Raytheon and the arms industry in general. Our pundit is also right - don't trust the polls. Check the bookmakers.